AHOUAKAN Ehouman Williams V,Ivory Coast,SRO/WA According to Barro's (1974, 1979) theoretical model, which predicts an inverse relationship between public debt and economic growth, the way fiscal consolidation programs affect the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Africa can be analyzed by considering several fundamental mechanisms.
Barro's theory posits that excessive borrowing can, in the short term, stimulate economic activity if the debt financed is used for productive investments or to support consumption, thereby promoting growth. However, when this debt becomes unsustainable, the need to repay principal and interest leads to austerity measures, often involving cuts in public spending. In the African context, such measures, such as reductions in health, education, or infrastructure spending can have detrimental effects on fulfilling the SDGs, which aim precisely to improve these essential sectors. Based on Barro’s framework, we can say that fiscal tightening limits governments’ capacity to stimulate long-term growth. Reducing public investments in key areas like health or education may slow progress toward SDG 3 (Good Health and Well-being) and SDG 4 (Quality Education). Consequently, even if fiscal consolidation improves short-term debt sustainability, it risks compromising progress on several SDGs by slowing down improvements in socioeconomic conditions. Furthermore, future growth also depends on the credibility of economic policies and macroeconomic stability. Austerity measures can help restore market confidence and support debt management, but their immediate impact on poverty and inequality might harm SDG 1 (No Poverty) and SDG 10 (Reduced Inequalities). Cutting social expenditures can exacerbate poverty, especially in a context where vulnerable populations are already severely affected by economic crises and the pandemic. Barro’s model suggests that if fiscal consolidation is implemented prudently and strategically targeting investments in human capital and infrastructure, it could establish a framework conducive to sustainable long-term growth, enabling better achievement of SDGs. This, however, would require effective governance and strengthened institutional capacity to minimize negative short-term effects while maximizing long-term benefits.